I worry about the world and want to make it a better place. I believe that everyone wants the future to be better than the present, but there are factors that may make the future worse, possibly far worse, than they are today. This is my list of my existential threats that could kill millions and alter the existence of billions of people worldwide.
1. Nuclear or Biological warfare -- I am a child of the 80s, so this is still my number one. It is more likely than not that some rogue state or even a non-state faction will detonate a nuclear bomb or release a biological/chemical weapon at some point in time over the next 100 years. If it is a one-time event, then I wouldn't consider that an existential threat. However, if it involves retaliation multiple states in conflict, then we have major problems.
2. Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity -- Mankind has benefitted greatly from technology and will continue to benefit, but I don't know what will happen as machines get faster and smarter. Unlike the others, this existential threat also has existential hope of a much better world. I'd even be OK if the future involved cyborgs, but the Terminator future of technological takeover and the destruction of humanity is an existential threat.
3. Natural disaster -- This one is fairly broad, but would include anything from a major meteor strike to the Yellowstone Super Volcano. It happened to the dinosaurs, it can happen to us. Disasters will occur, but the probability of a humanity-altering event over the next 100 years is slim but real. Note that climate change (see below) might make some natural disasters more likely to occur, but this category focuses an natural disasters unrelated to human activity.
4. Pandemic -- I originally made this list in February before Covid-19 wrought havoc around the world. I considered bumping it up a spot but decided against it. One reason for this is humanity's ability to respond. Vaccines and treatments will save millions. Even if we do a poor job of self-protection, life in 2022 will be similar to life in 2019. Like natural disasters, there will be more pandemics. A virus with a long incubation period and a lethal outcome would be humanity-altering. I'm also concerned about antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
5. Command economies -- Both communist/socialist and fascist economies fall under the umbrella of command economies. The Holocaust wasn't the result of economic failure, but it was caused by government control. The Holodomor doesn't receive nearly as much attention, but it also killed 3-12 million people, mostly in the Ukraine. It was the direct result of command economics. As the government took control of farmland, output fell resulting in famine Instead of taking action to increase output, Stalin used the opportunity to blame Ukraine resulting in millions of Ukrainian deaths. Likewise, the Great Chinese Famine of 1959-1961 was the result of the communist rule and the Great Leap Forward. Mismanagement of farmland coincided with changing weather patterns resulting in a drop in output. Placing more and more of the economy under government control increases the likelihood that mismanagement will have disastrous consequences.
+1. Climate Change -- I believe in climate change. The Earth is getting warmer largely due to the man-made burning of fossil fuels. Climate will continue to change, but so will technology. The Industrial Revolution (or revolutions) was a humanity-altering event in a positive sense. Life has improved by almost any metric. The Industrial Revolution also brought climate change, but I do not fear climate change because the Industrial Revolution gives us the ability to adapt. Technological advances have allowed us to produce so much more with so much less. There are literally billions more people alive today than there otherwise would be. I don't fear rising sea levels -- humanity can adapt. I don't fear disasters caused by climate change -- humanity will recover. My greater fear is restrictions in the name of preventing climate change that also prevents progress (although I do support a carbon tax to reflect the negative externalities associated with pollution).
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